If you often found yourself thinking that something was off about the Rangers on home ice in 2014-15, you aren’t wrong. That’s not to say the Rangers were bad at home, just not as dominant as they were on the road where they tied an NHL record with 28 wins. Struggles on home ice were particularly evident in the Eastern Conference Final where the Rangers, despite winning twice in Tampa while scoring 17 goals, only managed four goals at Madison Square Garden. Home ice has become a problem.
This isn’t just a theory. The numbers back it up, too. On home ice last year the Rangers attempted exactly 50% of the shots. On the road, 49%. Yes, you read that right. It actually went up. Here’s the thing: possession numbers always get better at home. Home-ice advantage is a very real thing, and corsi backs it up. The average team sees a 2-3% increase in their shot-attempt proficiency on home ice. The Rangers 1% increase simply isn’t good enough. These numbers may seem small, but in the world of shot attempts, they’re actually very large. There were 9,134 total shots attempted in Rangers games last year. If the Rangers are missing out on a 2% increase at home, that’s over 180 shot attempts.
49% is actually decent for a road team and there’s no questioning how dominant the Rangers were on the road in terms of winning games last year. The Rangers have won half the battle. They’ve found a way to be effective on the road. So why not at home? We can find out by digging into the Rangers’ strategy a little bit. Team hextally charts from WarOnIce are a good thing to have because they show you where shot attempts are coming from. The Rangers’ chart indicates that most of the other team’s offense is coming from the outside. I don’t think it’s any secret that with Henrik Lundqvist in goal, the Rangers are willing to sacrifice possession to allow the other team to shoot from low-percentage areas. This is probably why the Rangers remain a good team despite being an underwhelming possession team. I think this is a fine strategy on the road where like we found out before, the home team always shines, and they’re usually driving play anyway. At home however, the Rangers should be the team driving play.
In addition to their defensive style, the Rangers are also a team that rely heavily on scoring off the rush. They’re good at suckering teams into an up and down game where the Rangers can capitalize with their speed. That’s fine on the road where the home team is used to playing with the puck. If the Rangers can get into a speed game where there’s less cycling, that’s better for the Rangers. At home, the Rangers need to initiate the cycle and play with the puck. I think we’re capable of it. We have three defensemen in McDonagh, Yandle, and Boyle who are excellent at keep-ins. With Hayes possibly moving to wing and with the addition of Stalberg, we’re going to be huge along the boards. Scoring off the rush is a great weapon to have, but I feel like the Rangers made themselves a little bit one-dimensional last year, showing little ability to cycle the puck on offense when need be.
Like I said, the Rangers have won half the battle. Road teams see less of the puck, and the Rangers know how to win seeing less of the puck. At MSG though, the Rangers need to see more of the puck, and there’s no reason they can’t. If they can adapt their style and become a better possession team, the Rangers will be able to dominate at home like they do on the road.
mcdonaghandfries 